How the US yield curve compares to just before the financial crisis

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And I have added an additional data point into the chart so that readers can align where the credit market is today versus the 2008 financial crisis. The Treasury yield curve in April 2005 was.

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The spread between the yield on two- and 10-year Treasury paper fell from 135 in December 2016 to 51 basis points on December 15, the lowest since October 2007 — just before the start of the global financial crisis. Worse still would be if the yield curve inverts, as short-term returns outpace the longer-dated debt — meaning the spread is.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Yield Curve’. A normal yield curve is one in which longer maturity bonds have a higher yield compared to shorter-term bonds due to the risks associated with time. An inverted yield curve is one in which the shorter-term yields are higher than the longer-term yields, which can be a sign of upcoming recession.

The slope of the yield curve has proven to be a good forecaster of economic growth. There are three basic shapes the yield curve can take, each with different implications regarding economic growth. We’ll explore these below and then take a look at the what the current yield curve is saying. A normal, upward sloping yield curve is shown below.

In the three recessions that followed his dissertation, the yield curve again inverted before each one -including the 2008 global financial crisis. june 30 marked the day where the yield curve was inverted for a full quarter — triggering a recession forecast. "You can’t just look at the seven-for-seven track record.

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A yield curve plots interest rates for a bond against various time horizons until maturity. While a yield curve can be constructed for any bond, the Treasury bond yield curve is the most important market indicator. Maturities on these bonds range from 30 days to 30 years.

Which is what we got this week. The following chart shows the nominal and real US treasury yield curve as of December 4th, compared to the end of last year. The tonal shift from policymakers this year.